{"id":54413,"date":"2023-03-21T12:31:18","date_gmt":"2023-03-21T12:31:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jums.academy\/l-specht\/"},"modified":"2023-03-21T15:10:50","modified_gmt":"2023-03-21T15:10:50","slug":"l-specht","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/jums.academy\/en\/l-specht\/","title":{"rendered":"L. Specht"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-1 hundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;--awb-overflow:visible;--awb-flex-wrap:wrap;\" ><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-row\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-0 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-one-full fusion-column-first fusion-column-last fusion-column-no-min-height\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-flex-column-wrapper-legacy\"><div class=\"accordian fusion-accordian\" style=\"--awb-border-size:1px;--awb-icon-size:13px;--awb-content-font-size:16px;--awb-icon-alignment:left;--awb-hover-color:#f9f9f9;--awb-border-color:#cccccc;--awb-background-color:#ffffff;--awb-divider-color:#e0dede;--awb-divider-hover-color:#e0dede;--awb-icon-color:#000000;--awb-title-color:#333333;--awb-content-color:#333333;--awb-icon-box-color:#333333;--awb-toggle-hover-accent-color:#447c4d;--awb-title-font-family:&quot;Roboto Slab&quot;;--awb-title-font-weight:300;--awb-title-font-style:normal;--awb-title-font-size:16px;--awb-content-font-family:&quot;Roboto Slab&quot;;--awb-content-font-style:normal;--awb-content-font-weight:400;\"><div class=\"panel-group fusion-toggle-icon-unboxed\" id=\"accordion-54413-1\"><div class=\"fusion-panel panel-default panel-1a0c0739a8ff473a8 fusion-toggle-no-divider\" style=\"--awb-title-color:#333333;--awb-content-color:#333333;\"><div class=\"panel-heading\"><h4 class=\"panel-title toggle\" id=\"toggle_1a0c0739a8ff473a8\"><a 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2025<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/jums.academy\/en\/v10i3\/\">Junior Management Science, Volume 10, Issue 3, September 2025<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/jums.academy\/en\/v10i2\/\">Junior Management Science, Volume 10, Issue 2, June 2025<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/jums.academy\/en\/v10i1\/\">Junior Management Science, Volume 10, Issue 1, March 2025<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/jums.academy\/en\/v9i4\/\">Junior Management Science, Volume 9, Issue 4, December 2024<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/jums.academy\/en\/v9i3\/\">Junior Management Science, Volume 9, Issue 3, September 2024<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/jums.academy\/en\/v9i2\/\">Junior Management Science, Volume 9, Issue 2, June 2024<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/jums.academy\/en\/v9i1\/\">Junior Management Science, Volume 9, Issue 1, March 2024<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/jums.academy\/en\/v8i4\/\">Junior Management Science, Volume 8, Issue 4, December 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href=\"https:\/\/jums.academy\/en\/v2i3\/\">Junior Management Science, Volume 2, Issue 3, December 2017<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/jums.academy\/en\/v2i2\/\">Junior Management Science, Volume 2, Issue 2, September 2017<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/jums.academy\/en\/v2i1\/\">Junior Management Science, Volume 2, Issue 1, June 2017<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/jums.academy\/en\/v1i2\/\">Junior Management Science, Volume 1, Issue 2, December 2016<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/jums.academy\/en\/v1i1\/\">Junior Management Science, Volume 1, Issue 1, June 2016<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"fusion-title title fusion-title-1 sep-underline sep-solid fusion-title-text fusion-title-size-five\" style=\"--awb-margin-top-small:0px;--awb-margin-right-small:0px;--awb-margin-bottom-small:20px;--awb-margin-left-small:0px;--awb-sep-color:#000000;\"><h5 class=\"fusion-title-heading title-heading-left fusion-responsive-typography-calculated\" style=\"margin:0;--fontSize:18;--minFontSize:18;line-height:1.38;\"><\/h5><\/div><div class=\"fusion-clearfix\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-2 nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-background-position:left top;--awb-border-sizes-top:0px;--awb-border-sizes-bottom:0px;--awb-border-sizes-left:0px;--awb-border-sizes-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;--awb-padding-top:0px;--awb-padding-bottom:0px;--awb-flex-wrap:wrap;\" ><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-row\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-1 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-one-full fusion-column-first fusion-column-last\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-flex-column-wrapper-legacy\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-1\"><p><a name=\"A9\"><\/a><\/p>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: left;\">An Empirical Analysis of European Credit Default Swap Spread Dynamics<\/h5>\n<p>Leon Specht, Leibniz-Universit\u00e4t Hannover (Master thesis)<br \/>\nJunior Management Science 8(1), 2023, 1-42<\/p>\n<\/div><div class=\"accordian fusion-accordian\" style=\"--awb-border-size:1px;--awb-icon-size:13px;--awb-content-font-size:16px;--awb-icon-alignment:left;--awb-hover-color:#f9f9f9;--awb-border-color:#cccccc;--awb-background-color:#ffffff;--awb-divider-color:#e0dede;--awb-divider-hover-color:#e0dede;--awb-icon-color:#ffffff;--awb-title-color:#333333;--awb-content-color:#333333;--awb-icon-box-color:#333333;--awb-toggle-hover-accent-color:#447c4d;--awb-title-font-family:&quot;Roboto Slab&quot;;--awb-title-font-weight:300;--awb-title-font-style:normal;--awb-title-font-size:16px;--awb-content-font-family:&quot;Roboto Slab&quot;;--awb-content-font-style:normal;--awb-content-font-weight:400;\"><div class=\"panel-group fusion-toggle-icon-boxed\" id=\"accordion-54413-2\"><div class=\"fusion-panel panel-default panel-c3a696b800f9c2cdf fusion-toggle-no-divider\" style=\"--awb-title-color:#333333;--awb-content-color:#333333;\"><div class=\"panel-heading\"><h4 class=\"panel-title toggle\" id=\"toggle_c3a696b800f9c2cdf\"><a aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-controls=\"c3a696b800f9c2cdf\" role=\"button\" data-toggle=\"collapse\" data-parent=\"#accordion-54413-2\" data-target=\"#c3a696b800f9c2cdf\" href=\"#c3a696b800f9c2cdf\"><span class=\"fusion-toggle-icon-wrapper\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i class=\"fa-fusion-box active-icon awb-icon-minus\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i><i class=\"fa-fusion-box inactive-icon awb-icon-plus\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i><\/span><span class=\"fusion-toggle-heading\">Read abstract<\/span><\/a><\/h4><\/div><div id=\"c3a696b800f9c2cdf\" class=\"panel-collapse collapse \" aria-labelledby=\"toggle_c3a696b800f9c2cdf\"><div class=\"panel-body toggle-content fusion-clearfix\">\nI analyze the dynamics of European credit default swap spreads by estimating CDS spreads via an extension of the structural credit risk models by Black and Cox (1976) as well as Leland (1994), the so called CreditGrades model proposed by Finger et al. (2002). Using two different procedures in approximating the asset volatility surface of obligors, the models are calibrated by means of historical equity volatility and volatility extracted out of at-the-money options. I discover that model performance strongly depends on the distribution of input parameters clustered by economical sectors. Model spreads exhibit significant correlation with market spreads and seem to predict market spreads contingent on sectors and model calibration techniques. The gap between model and market spreads, derived model spreads and empirical market spreads are analyzed by running panel regressions in fashion of Collin-Dufresn et al. (2001) and Bedendo et al. (2011). These show that times of disconnectedness between credit and equity markets, model inherent misspecifications as well as possible market inefficiencies can contribute to the inability to estimate spreads reliably. Robustness checks show that determinants of gap, model and market spreads are sector specific, time varying and tenor dependent.<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-2\"><p><em>Keywords: Credit Risk; Credit Risk Modelling; Structural Models; Credit Risk Management; Quantitative Finance.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-3\"><p><em>DOI: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5282\/jums\/v8i1pp1-42<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div><div class=\"fusion-alignright\"><a class=\"fusion-button button-flat fusion-button-default-size button-custom fusion-button-default button-1 fusion-button-default-span fusion-button-default-type\" style=\"--button_accent_color:#ffffff;--button_accent_hover_color:#ffffff;--button_border_hover_color:#96c346;--button_gradient_top_color:#447c4d;--button_gradient_bottom_color:#447c4d;--button_gradient_top_color_hover:#96c346;--button_gradient_bottom_color_hover:#96c346;\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/jums.academy\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/MA_Specht.pdf\"><span class=\"fusion-button-text awb-button__text awb-button__text--default\">Read article<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"fusion-alignright\"><a class=\"fusion-button button-flat fusion-button-default-size button-custom fusion-button-default button-2 fusion-button-default-span fusion-button-default-type\" style=\"--button_accent_color:#ffffff;--button_accent_hover_color:#ffffff;--button_border_hover_color:#96c346;--button_gradient_top_color:#447c4d;--button_gradient_bottom_color:#447c4d;--button_gradient_top_color_hover:#96c346;--button_gradient_bottom_color_hover:#96c346;\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/jums.academy\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/A_Specht.pdf\"><span class=\"fusion-button-text awb-button__text awb-button__text--default\">Read Appendix<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"fusion-alignright\"><a class=\"fusion-button button-flat fusion-button-default-size button-custom fusion-button-default button-3 fusion-button-default-span fusion-button-default-type\" style=\"--button_accent_color:#ffffff;--button_accent_hover_color:#ffffff;--button_border_hover_color:#96c346;--button_gradient_top_color:#447c4d;--button_gradient_bottom_color:#447c4d;--button_gradient_top_color_hover:#96c346;--button_gradient_bottom_color_hover:#96c346;\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5282\/jums\/v8i1pp1-42\"><span class=\"fusion-button-text awb-button__text awb-button__text--default\">Cite article<\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-4\" style=\"--awb-line-height:0.1;\"><p style=\"text-align: right; 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